Pat Toomey, the man who drove Sen. Arlen Specter from the Republican party last year, is now threatening to drive the Democrats from the Pennsylvania Senate seat they’ve held since Specter left the GOP last April. A new poll from Franklin & Marshall University shows that among registered voters, Toomey is tied with Specter and leads Rep. Joe Sestak, who’s challenging Specter for the Democratic nomination.
Among likely voters, Toomey leads both men by double-digits. He’s ahead of Specter 45-31, and leads Sestak 41-19. Inside those numbers, Franklin & Marshall polling director Dr. G. Terry Madonna told me, is a similar story seen in the 2009 gubernatorial elections and last week’s Massachusetts Senate race: Toomey’s voters are far more motivated and excited about the race than Democratic supporters.
Madonna said the screen his poll uses to determine likely voters essentially turned into a measure of voter motivation in this poll. He suggested analysts ignore the direct results among likely voters until a few weeks before election day. But he said the numbers do show that Toomey’s supporters are already more fired about about turning out than the Democrats are. In recent elections, a similar motivation gap in polling foreshadowed big wins for Republicans, including the upset win in Massachusetts.
A Rasmussen poll of likely voters last week also showed Toomey leading both potential Democratic nominees.
The likely voter numbers may not be an accurate read on what the results would be were the election held today, Madonna said, but “they are very revealing of the state of the political environment.”
