Hutchison's big problem right now is her very weak showing among self-described conservatives, and a lack of enough moderates. Among the 76% of the likely primary electorate who describe themselves as conservatives, Perry leads with 42%, Medina has 25%, and Hutchison is third with 23%. Among the 20% who call themselves moderates, Hutchison leads with 49%, Perry has 29%, and Medina 14%.
Perry would be heavily favored in a runoff against Hutchison, as he is the second choice of Medina-voters by a close 43%-39% margin, and starts out with a lead. So what would happen if Medina were to upset Hutchison, and the runoff were then between Perry and Medina?
"I think Perry would have a strong advantage. Medina is relying on the anti-establishment vote and that will only go so far," PPP communications director Tom Jensen tells TPMDC. "Plus Hutchison is the 'moderate' in the race, relatively speaking, so it's hard to see her folks going for the most right wing candidate. The only way I could see that going differently is if there's so much bad blood between Perry and Hutchison by the end of the race that she tells her supporters to vote for Medina. But that seems pretty unlikely."