An overnight snap poll from Research 2000/Democracy For America
suggests that Bill Halter is potentially beginning the Democratic primary runoff for Senate in Arkansas with a lead over incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln.
The numbers: Halter 48%, Lincoln 46%. The survey of people who voted in Tuesday's first round of the Democratic primary has a Â±4.5% margin of error.
The TPM Poll Average
gives Lincoln an insignificantÂ edge of 45.2%-45.1% in a direct two-way race with Halter -- but keep in mind that this data set is almost entirely from polls taken before the primary, and has a lot of asterisks and caveats to go with it.