The new Honolulu Advertiser poll shows that Democrats are in danger of losing a seemingly ultra-safe House seat in Hawaii, thanks to the state’s quirky special election process.
The numbers: Republican Honolulu councilman Charles Djou 37%, Democratic former Rep. Ed Case 29% — and another Democrat, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, with 22%. The sample of likely voters has a ±5.2% margin of error.
Hawaii special elections for the House do not function according to the usual rules in other states, where candidates either compete in separate party primaries, or the parties select their candidates through an internal party committee process. Instead, a single-round election is held in which all the candidates appear together on one ballot, and the plurality-winner takes the whole thing. The election is being conducted entirely by mail, and will end on May 22.
A look at the internals in this latest poll tells the story: Djou wins 79% of the Republican vote, 42% of independents and even 19% of Democrats, while Case and Hanabusa are splitting the Democratic vote at Case 37% to Hanabusa 34%.
A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll from two weeks ago gave Djou a plurality of 32%, followed by Case at 29%, and Hanabusa with 28%
President Obama carried this district with 70% of the vote, but the Dems could be in real danger of losing it. If this does occur, look for them to immediately aim to take it back this November, with the regular election conducted under the more conventional process of separate primary and general elections.
