The first post-primary poll is now out in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, giving Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie a healthy lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine. The numbers from Rasmussen: Christie 51%, Corzine 38%, outside of the ±4.5% margin of error.
Christie won the Republican primary on Tuesday night, and this poll was then immediately conducted yesterday. Three weeks ago, Christie led Corzine by a 47%-38% margin. Corzine’s approval rating in the latest poll is only 42%, against 57% disapproval, while Christie’s favorables and unfavorables stand at 60%-40%.
However, there is a frequent pattern in New Jersey elections that must be noted — a sizable number of voters don’t affirmatively like the Democrats, but in the final weeks of a campaign will break heavily in that direction as a vote against the conservatism of the Republican candidate.
The pollster’s analysis — and I should note that Scott Rasmussen is a New Jerseyan, like myself — acknowledges this important caveat: “New Jersey polls often show Republican candidates doing well in the spring with Democrats gaining ground in the fall. Corzine is expected to heavily outspend Christie which could add to that trend.”
