Poll: Could A Democrat Get Elected To The Senate From Utah?

A new survey of Utah from Public Policy Polling (D) finds a surprising result: That in this deep, deep, deep-red state, Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson could potentially be a competitive — or even winning — candidate for U.S. Senate.

Matheson, a Blue Dog Democrat, was tested against incumbent six-term Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, plus GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who could potentially challenge Hatch for the Republican nomination. The result showed Matheson edging out Hatch by 45%-44%, and leading Chaffetz by 47%-42%.

The poll showed Matheson with a 59% favorable rating, to 28% unfavorable. Two other Democrats were tested — former state Attorney General Jan Graham, and 2010 Senate nominee and state Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control chairman Sam Granato – and they both trailed Hatch and Chaffetz by martins of about 20 points in all cases.

Of course, it should be noted that the idea of a Democratic senator from Utah does fall into the category of “believe it when you see it.” And even then, you’d still have your doubts.

Utah is a solidly Republican state, which has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1970 re-election of Sen. Ted Moss (who was originally elected to his first term in 1958, thanks to a split Republican vote in a three-way race). Furthermore, 2012 will be a presidential election year, and the state has not voted Democratic for president since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964. In 2008, it voted for John McCain by 63%-34%.

On the other hand, there is some corroboration for the idea that Matheson could garner a significant personal vote. In mid-June, a survey from Utah pollster Dan Jones for the 2012 gubernatorial race showed Matheson only narrowly trailing incumbent GOP Gov. Gary Herbert, by a 48%-45% margin. And Matheson has been getting elected since 2000 in a Republican-leaning district that voted 58%-40% for John McCain in 2008, and before that voted for George W. Bush by 66%-31% in 2004.

For this new PPP survey, the poll of 732 registered Utah voters was conducted from July 8-10, and has a ±3.6% margin of error.