In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Poll: Christie Up By Only Four -- Is There A Hidden Minority Vote, Or Not?

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The Monmouth poll had a top-line of Christie 43%, Corzine 40%, Daggett 8%. A combined sample of black and Hispanic voters had only 7% undecided. These minority groups were given to me by Monmouth as a combined set because the sample size was too small. The margin of error on the minority group sub-sample is a whopping ±14%.

The Quinnpiac poll had a top-line of Christie 43%, Corzine 39%, Daggett 12%. Quinnpiac has informed me that they had only 9% of blacks as undecided. A breakdown for Hispanics was not given, because the sample was too small. The margin of error on the black voters group was ±13.2%.

Research 2000 president Del Ali told me that the margin of error for his black voters sub-sample was ±11.4%, for Hispanics ±15%, and for other ±20%. He agreed with me on my doubts about releasing such small samples or taking them too seriously, but also explained: "I understand why Markos does release them. It is for transparency reasons."