The honeymoon is over for President Obama, as a Gallup poll released this morning shows that his approval rating fell in all 50 states over his second year in office when compared to the first one. Yet a closer look at the results reveals that Obama isn’t really in such a dire position as that statistic alone makes it seem.
Yes, Obama’s average approval rating was lower in every state last year than it was the year before. But that mainly reflects his approval rating having leveled off after the post-inaugural highs he enjoyed at the start of 2009.
At the time of his inauguration, Obama boasted a sparkling 66% approval rating nationwide, according to Gallup. Almost without exception, Gallup has found presidential approval ratings dipping after an inauguration, as presidents moved from campaigning to governing. Soon after his inauguration, Ronald Reagan’s approval shot up to nearly 70%; at the end of year two, it was hovering around 40%.
When examined state by state, the results aren’t exactly a disaster for Obama either. Despite the slide, Obama’s approval rating remains above water in almost every state he won in 2008. New Hampshire, Indiana and — barely — Colorado and Florida are the only states Obama carried in the last election but which now give him a net negative approval rating.
Check out this map Gallup included with the poll’s release:
The dark green states — where Obama’s approval rating either comes close to or bests his national average — corresponds nicely to the states he won by large margins last time around.
Gallup pegged Obama’s average approval rating nationally for his second year at 47%, down from an inflated 58% for his first year. However, 2011 began with Obama’s approval rating rebounding into positive territory — data that the Gallup poll doesn’t reflect.
The current TPM Poll Average shows gives Obama a 48.7% approval rating, compared to a 45.9% disapproval.
Of course Obama could stumble over the next year in the run up to a reelection bid, and his approval rating could again slide. Yet Gallup’s raw results paint a much bleaker picture for Obama than is actually the case right now.
The findings are based on a Gallup polls conducted last year among nearly 180,000 adults nationwide. The national approval rating average has a margin of error of 1%, while the margin of error for each state ranges up to 6%.
