A new poll out this morning shows Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) would be able to win a Democratic Senate seat this fall — if he can win next Tuesday’s GOP primary election against the suddenly surging Christine O’Donnell.
But should O’Donnell ride her tea party wave and capture the nomination as the more conservative choice, she would lose, the Rasmussen Reports poll shows.Castle beats Democratic nominee Chris Coons 48-37 in the Rasmussen poll. Coons would beat O’Donnell 44.0-37.5.
O’Donnell has been included in very few polls given Castle’s prominence for the last year, so there is no TPM Poll Average. We also haven’t seen any public polling for this race. The Tea Party Express, which has invested heavily in O’Donnell’s candidacy, shows she is within striking distance of Castle.
The pollster writes:
Castle captures 71% of the GOP vote, while O’Donnell earns 63% support among voters in her own party. While Coons is backed by 70% of Democrats against O’Donnell, he earns the vote from just 55% of Democratic voters when matched against Castle. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer Castle over Coons but favor the Democrat if O’Donnell is his opponent.
The survey of 500 likely voters has a Â±3% margin of error.
Read our coverage of the race here.