Voters are headed to the polls today in Minnesota’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. The party’s chosen candidate, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, is facing off against former state House Dem leader Matt Entenza and former Sen. Mark Dayton — and is going to need some help to pull out a victory.
The TPM Poll Average for the primary gives Dayton the lead with 41.0%, followed by Kelliher at 26.5%, and Entenza with 22.0%. The question, then, is whether the organized ground game of the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party — as the Dems are called in Minnesota — will be able to pull off a surprise for Kelliher despite the polls.
Minnesota political parties traditionally don’t hold real primaries, but instead go through a system of precinct caucuses, county conventions and a state convention. If a candidate can get a 60% super-majority of delegates at the state convention, the party then officially endorses that candidate and the opponents are expected by custom to drop out. This is how presumptive Republican Tom Emmer won his nomination, for example, with tomorrow’s primary a mere formality on the Republican side.
But it didn’t work out quite so cleanly on the Democratic side.
Kelliher won her convention, beating out Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak and a few other candidates. However, Dayton made it clear from the start that he was not pursuing the endorsement at all, and was running only in the primary, and both he and Entenza continued to campaign after the party put its weight behind Kelliher.
Also, it is not without precedent for an endorsed candidate to lose their primary. For example, in 2006 the DFL’s endorsed attorney general candidate Steve Kelley was defeated by Lori Swanson. And in 2000, the endorsed DFL Senate candidate Jerry Janezich also lost the primary — to Mark Dayton.
Both Dayton and Entenza have been helped by a significant factor: Personal wealth. Entenza has spent over $5 million on the race, and Dayton has spent $3 million.
A Democratic source who supports Kelliher told us: “I think this year what you saw that we haven’t really seen in the past, you have DFL candidates not abiding by the endorsement who have a significant amount of personal money they can put into the race. For them, they’re able to continue on with this. Everybody has to choose their own path, and this is the path that they’ve chosen. Their personal wealth allows them to do it, whereas other candidates might not have been able to.”
If Dayton does win the primary, it will represent quite a comeback. He was elected to the Senate in 2000, defeating incumbent Republican Sen. Rod Grams by 49%-43%. Over the course of his term, however, he became widely perceived as unpopular and ineffective. In February 2005 he announced his retirement — and openly cited problems with his own electability as a factor. “Everything I’ve worked for and everything I believe in depends upon this Senate seat remaining in the Democratic caucus in 2007. I do not believe that I am the best candidate to lead the DFL Party to victory next year,” Dayton said, in a remarkable display of honesty that most politicians in the same position don’t admit to.
Since then, however, Dayton has worked to repair his image. One unusual step he took was to discuss his struggles with depression and alcoholism with the media.
Meanwhile, all DFL candidates lead Tom Emmer in the TPM Poll Average for the general election. This is quite surprising considering that no Democrat has won the governor’s mansion since 1986, despite the state’s usual Democratic leanings. But it sure seems that the winner of tonight’s primary will start out as the initial favorite, thanks in large part to Emmer’s own well-reported gaffes — even in this seemingly Republican year.
