In it, but not of it. TPM DC

McMahon Surging From 25 to 20 Point Deficit

Newscom / FILE PHOTO

The TPM Poll Average for the race shows Blumenthal in the lead by a margin of 52.5-37.0. That's still a very significant lead, especially considering the fact that Blumenthal spent about a week embroiled in a national scandal about the rhetoric he's used to describe his military service.

The trend line for recent polling shows that McMahon is slowly closing the gap with Blumenthal. That's not a surprise, considering McMahon just spent a ton of money securing her party's endorsement at the state GOP convention last month. But it could mean Democrats might have to work a little harder than they expected to keep the Connecicut seat -- which is being vacated by the retiring Sen. Chris Dodd (D) -- in Democratic hands.