So what will the parties be doing over the August recess, to reach swing voters to in the health care debate? An NRCC source told TPM that August will be taken up by a comprehensive blitz of both paid and earned media, with candidates and incumbents holding town halls and other events against the bill.
“Those who cut the deal in committee are now guaranteed to be recipients of the August offensive,” the source said, also adding: “The fact that it doesn’t reduce costs, will run up the deficit, and will be financed with tax hikes and Medicare cuts is a rather easy and salient argument to make. The script writes itself.”
On the other side, a Democratic source speculated that Dems will likely be seeing movement from President Obama’s campaign group, Organizing For America, with the DNC outside groups proving air support. The question, then, will be the degree to which they can effectively retake control of the debate.
The polls at this point show the public to be in favor of government guaranteeing health care, but at the same time an overlapping majority worries about taxes, too much spending, big government, etc. There is a significant chunk in the political middle that simultaneously holds both of these opinions, a longstanding fact of American politics that has bedeviled reformers since even before 1993. And this will take on a heightened importance as we head into a new crunch time this August, with each party striving to get voters to care more about their own side of the argument.
Check out some of these conflicting poll results, after the jump.
⢠In the new CBS/New York Times poll, 66% favor a public option, compared to 27% against it. And Americans say by a 55%-38% margin that government should guarantee health care for all Americans. At the same time, 56% are “very concerned” that businesses will cut jobs if the government acts, 45% are very concerned about their own taxes going up, and 43% are very concerned that their own access to care will be diminished.
⢠The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has a complex set of numbers. Early on, respondents were asked if they thought PResident Obama’s proposal was a good idea or bad idea, giving him only a 36%-42% margin. Later on in the questionnaire, however, respondents were read a statement summarizing Obama’s current proposals — yielding a 56%-38% margin for those favoring it. In short, Obama and Democrats could potentially sell the plan, but only if the details are understandably spelled out for people.
⢠The new Time poll generally shows people being widely in favor of comprehensive reform — for example, the public option is approved 56%-36%. On the other hand, 62% think the final legislation is likely to raise their own health care costs in the long run, and 56% think they will have less freedom to choose their own doctors and coverage.
