Ellsworth starts the fall campaign running behind Coats, who drew fire from tea party groups and Libertarians during the primary. The TPM Poll Average of the race shows Coats ahead by a margin of 47.4-34.2.
But so far, Ellsworth has proven to be the better fundraiser and has secured the full support of Bayh, who has decades of experience winning elections in Indiana.
Still, most prognosticators expect this race to be a uphill climb for Democrats, though one that Ellsworth can certainly win. The Cook Report rates the race as Lean Republican, as does CQ. The Washington Post calls the race a Tossup.