High Latino Turnout May Cost Trump Florida

Georgina Arcienegas holds a sign in support of Latino voters during a protest outside the office of Florida Rep. Carlos Trujillo, Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2016, in Doral, Fla. On the opening day of the Florida legislative s... Georgina Arcienegas holds a sign in support of Latino voters during a protest outside the office of Florida Rep. Carlos Trujillo, Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2016, in Doral, Fla. On the opening day of the Florida legislative session, protestors unveiled their agenda for increasing the minimum wage, and pro-immigrant legislation. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky) MORE LESS
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Donald Trump’s narrow path to the White House runs straight through Florida. But in the swing county of Miami-Dade, early voting numbers show Trump may be in trouble thanks to a booming Latino voter turnout.

Trump’s team has long said that Miami-Dade is critical to winning the White House and according to an analysis by Bloomberg News, it could be slipping from Trump’s grasp.

In the county, 58 percent of early voters in Miami-Dade have been Hispanic so far and “hundreds of thousand of new black and Hispanic voters are casting ballots.”

Bloomberg took special care to ensure that the erly voters weren’t simply Hispanic and African American voters who would have turned out on Election Day, regardless. According to their analysis, 1 in 5 African American early voters didn’t vote in 2012 and 1 in 3 Latino early voters didn’t vote in 2012.

Of the more than 700,000 individuals who have cast early ballots in Miami-Dade, 44 percent have been Democrats, 30 percent have been Republicans and 25 percent have “no party affiliation,” “a group that tends to skew younger and Hispanic, and thus toward Clinton,” according to Bloomberg.

When Bloomberg looked at the entire Miami area – not just the single county of Miami-Dade– it found even more troubling news for Trump. Of the 1.3 million individuals who cast ballots early, 351,000 didn’t vote in 2012 and 47 percent of them were Hispanic.

Statewide, analysts have said that the Latino vote is up more than 100 percent, and as of last week, more Latinos had cast votes in early voting in 2016 then they did in the entirety of 2012.

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Notable Replies

  1. This would be the sweetest aspect of the Drumpf defeat!

    Can’t wait for that Taco Truck on my corner!

  2. Avatar for dnl dnl says:

    Si se puedes!!

  3. Trump seems to be good for Democracy here in Florida. In Duval County ( Jacksonville ) where I live Blacks and Hispanics are voting in higher numbers than ever before. I’m sure as the local GOP says that out of a love of Trump. My best friend is a Jew that never votes. He is this time though. Pepe motivated him.

    Trump is great for Democracy.

  4. May, may, may, I will turn of the computer for the next 24 hours and cross my fingers…

  5. In short Trump is facing the same problem in Florida as he faces in Nevada. New Latino voters don’t seem to show up in conventional polling. I wonder what is going on in Arizona and Texas.

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