High Latino Turnout May Cost Trump Florida

AP
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Donald Trump’s narrow path to the White House runs straight through Florida. But in the swing county of Miami-Dade, early voting numbers show Trump may be in trouble thanks to a booming Latino voter turnout.

Trump’s team has long said that Miami-Dade is critical to winning the White House and according to an analysis by Bloomberg News, it could be slipping from Trump’s grasp.

In the county, 58 percent of early voters in Miami-Dade have been Hispanic so far and “hundreds of thousand of new black and Hispanic voters are casting ballots.”

Bloomberg took special care to ensure that the erly voters weren’t simply Hispanic and African American voters who would have turned out on Election Day, regardless. According to their analysis, 1 in 5 African American early voters didn’t vote in 2012 and 1 in 3 Latino early voters didn’t vote in 2012.

Of the more than 700,000 individuals who have cast early ballots in Miami-Dade, 44 percent have been Democrats, 30 percent have been Republicans and 25 percent have “no party affiliation,” “a group that tends to skew younger and Hispanic, and thus toward Clinton,” according to Bloomberg.

When Bloomberg looked at the entire Miami area – not just the single county of Miami-Dade– it found even more troubling news for Trump. Of the 1.3 million individuals who cast ballots early, 351,000 didn’t vote in 2012 and 47 percent of them were Hispanic.

Statewide, analysts have said that the Latino vote is up more than 100 percent, and as of last week, more Latinos had cast votes in early voting in 2016 then they did in the entirety of 2012.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Lauren Fox is a reporter at Talking Points Memo.
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