It took a shocking upset victory in Iowa to jumpstart Mike Huckabee’s presidential campaign in 2008 and vault him into viable contention for the Republican nomination. Yet now, with his elevated national profile, Huckabee is already considered a leading candidate for the GOP nod — and based on recent polls, he may be emerging as the frontrunner heading into the Republican primary season.
Huckabee has been the most consistently strong Republican in early polls of the 2012 GOP race. While there is much fluidity to the order in which the leading candidates fall from poll to poll, Huckabee has almost always placed first or second, particularly in recent national surveys.
Two national polls conducted in mid January found Huckabee leading the GOP field, with one of the polls pegging his lead at double digits. In an ABC/Washinton Post poll, 21% of respondents chose Huckabee from among a crowded slate of 14 candidates, while 19% went for Sarah Palin, and 17% for Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, a PPP poll conducted the same week — but with a slimmer eight-candidate slate — showed Huckabee on top at 24%, with Palin and Romney tied 10 points back at 14%. What’s more, that large lead came just two months after the same survey had Huckabee stuck in fourth place at just 16%.
Huckabee’s surge in the PPP poll is largely the result of a conservative shift away from Palin and Gingrich and toward the former Arkansas governor. In the November poll, 14% of conservatives backed Huckabee. That support grew to 25% in the latest survey. Meanwhile, Gingrich’s support with the same group fell from 23% to 11%, and Palin’s conservative support dropped from 24% to 16%.
Early statewide polls have also shown Huckabee doing well.
Of the 14 state primaries PPP has polled since the midterm elections, Huckabee has led or tied for the lead in eight of them, and he placed a close second in an additional three. In Iowa, which holds the first vote in the nominating process, Huckabee held a commanding 12-point lead on his closest challenger. Iowa can make or break candidacies with the intense media exposure the contest garners. Huckabee was a virtual unknown before he won Iowa in 2008, and he ended up coming closest to nabbing the nomination from John McCain.
As with the national polls, Huckabee performs well in individual states thanks to strong backing from conservative voters. In PPP’s state polls, Huckabee averages over a 70% favorability rating with that demographic, second only to Palin. In Missouri, 81% of conservatives in one poll said they viewed him favorably.
Conservative support is crucial in primary contests, as that group typically turns out in droves. And as PPP’s Tom Jensen noted last month, polls have shown the GOP electorate becoming more conservative since the 2008 election. That conservative shift is great news for Huckabee, but it’s bad news for one of his chief rivals, Mitt Romney. Of the four frontrunners, Romney has posted the worst favorability ratings among conservative voters (for instance, 54% in Ohio and 53% in North Carolina).
And speaking of good news for Huckabee that doubles as bad news for Romney, a poll of New Jersey Republicans released this week showed those two candidates tied atop the GOP field there at 18% apiece. As a comparatively moderate candidate and former governor for another Northeastern state, Massachusetts, Romney should theoretically have an edge in New Jersey. Indeed, he snagged 28% of the vote in the state’s 2008 primary.
Huckabee has demonstrated a unique ability to draw support from both conservative and moderate Republicans. In releasing PPP’s last national survey results, Jensen wrote that, “Huckabee is obviously the big winner in this poll. He’s ahead with both moderates and conservatives, showing an ability to unify two wings of the party that have become increasingly polarized from each other with the rise of the Tea Party movement.”
“Huckabee’s definitely having the best 2011 of the potential Republican contenders so far, continuing to lead in all of the Iowa polls and improving his standing in the national ones,” he added.
There’s still a long road left before primary voting begins, and no Republican has even officially declared a candidacy. An upstart candidate could suddenly emerge and do what Huckabee did in 2008 by leapfrogging the established candidates. Yet for now, Huckabee seems to be shoring up support — and may even be steadily emerging as the candidate to beat.
