The resignation of Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA) will provide an interesting political science test case — for a new electoral system in California.
In a referendum held during last year’s primary, California’s voters approved Proposition 14, which replaced the conventional party primaries with a different system known as Top Two, which has already been in use in Washington state for the past few years. (A similar system has been used for a long time in Louisiana, sometimes called the “jungle primary,” but Washington state’s version was the model used for California — and in fact, Louisiana has scrapped the use of the jungle primary for federal races.)
Under this system, which took effect in January this year, all candidates will appear on the same ballot, with their respective party labels next to their names, and the top two voter-getters advancing to the general election. This system allows for the possibility of two Democrats or two Republicans facing off in very safe districts, which is thought to benefit more moderate candidates, though in statewide races and swing districts there will likely be one Dem vs. one GOPer.
A key feature of California’s implementation of this system is that in regularly-scheduled elections, there will be a second round regardless of whether somebody were to get over 50% of the vote in the primary. For a special election such as this one to fill Harman’s seat, however, a candidate who wins over 50% in the first round will not face a runoff, but will be elected immediately.
So when will the election be? The California Secretary of State’s office tells us that the governor must call an election within 14 days of the date of the vacancy. Then the election must be held between 112-126 days after that call — but with an exception that it could be up to 180 days if it would be consolidated with any already scheduled election.
Eric Bauman, the chairman of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party and vice chairman of the state Democratic Party, told TPM that if there were a runoff, it would likely be held to coincide with a statewide referendum in June, in which Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown is seeking the extension of some temporary tax increases that were instituted by Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, and are set to expire in July.
How will the top-two primary affect the race, I asked Bauman? As he noted, it might not be too different — as California already used a different system for special elections before. Under the old rules, special elections were also done with all candidates on the same ballot, and a candidate who got at least 50%-plus-one winning outright — but if nobody did so, then there would be a general election of the top Democrat, top Republican, top Libertarian, top Green, etc.
Bauman said that possible candidates include Los Angeles City Councillor Janice Hahn (sister of former Mayor James Hahn), Secretary of State Debra Bowen, and state Rep. Warren Furutani. Bauman predicted hard-fought race.
“The thing is, Congressional seats open up so rarely in California, that they always create a free for all,” said Bauman. “It’s very rare, unless can someone can really get out in front and has a lot of dough, they can put something away completely. But because it’s a special election, the window to raise money is very short.”
Harman’s district in its current form is deep-blue, and has only been getting more so over the past decade: It voted 64%-36% for Barack Obama in 2008, 59%-40% for John Kerry in 2004, and 55%-37% in 2000. With numbers like that, it’s conceivable that a runoff could potentially feature two Democrats, though it’s of course far too soon to say.
