Poll: GOP Advantage Is Smaller In 2014 Than In 2010

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, left, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the top two Republicans in Congress, talk about their lunch meeting with President Obama to discuss rising gasoline prices,... House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, left, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the top two Republicans in Congress, talk about their lunch meeting with President Obama to discuss rising gasoline prices, at a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Feb. 29, 2012. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) MORE LESS
Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

The Republican party has a smaller advantage going into the 2014 elections than it did at this point in the 2010 cycle before winning the House majority.

A NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that likely voters prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by a 2-point margin. In mid-October 2010, that was 7 points. (The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.)

“I think it’s going to be a very good Republican year,” Bill McInturff, a GOP pollster who helped conduct the survey, told NBC. “But plus-two [points] is very different than plus-seven.”

There are several factors working more strongly in the GOP’s favor. President Barack Obama’s approval rating is underwater, with 42 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving of the job he’s doing as president.

Among registered voters, 43 percent said their vote would not be a signal about Obama. Among the rest, 24 percent said their vote would be about expressing support for him while 32 said it would be about expressing opposition to him.

The Democratic party still has a stronger image: its approval rating is underwater by 6 points, while the Republican party’s approval rating is underwater by 23 percentage points.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 8-12. The margin of error among registered voters, as opposed to likely voters, is 3.1 percentage points.

Latest DC

Notable Replies

  1. If they don’t win the Senate it will be seen as one of the biggest political failures so far in the 21st century. Their hopes of gaining seats in 2016 in nil. Dems will have their majority back up to 55+ seats due to all the Republicans in purple states up for re-election and hopefully they will lose the House too.

  2. “We hate Republicans. That’s why we keep voting for them.”

    Hashtag WTF_America?

  3. [quote] President Barack Obama’s approval rating is underwater, with 42 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving of the job he’s doing as president. [/quote] Still higher than Bush’s 25% “approval” rating. Why is there no mention of this fact?

    The Republican’s shrinking “advantage” is directly related to their shrinking “brains” and decaying 'youth".

  4. Avatar for ryanp ryanp says:

    Among registered voters, 43 percent said their vote would not be a signal about Obama. Among the rest, 24 percent said their vote would be about expressing support for him while 32 said it would be about expressing opposition to him.

    I’m sure I’m going out on a limb here, but it seems that the 32% planning to express opposition through their vote shows the grain of salt that we should keep in mind when hearing about how underwater Obama’s approval ratings are.

    There seem to be a lot of people that were expecting magic pixie dust or something and can’t wrap their heads around why having an entire political party actively trying to thwart his every move might hinder his achievements. I’m sure those folks make up at least some part of the 52% disapproval rating. In fact I’d wager they make up around 1/3 of the disapproval.

    If these folks disapprove from the left then the GOP can’t really count on them for support, at most they might be able to count on them to stay home. This of course is why the “both sides are the same and equally to blame” crap must be fought so hard.

  5. Excellent post. Let me just add that in any statewide or national election, the Republican always starts out with at least 30-35% of the vote. The candidate could literally be caught on tape beating a baby with one hand and choking a puppy with the other and 30-35% of GOP voters would still support them. That same 30-35% would would oppose a Democratic president if unemployment were at 1%, the Dow was above 30,000, he ended Middle East terrorism and brokered a peace deal between Palestinians and Israelis, and if the economy were growing 10% every quarter.

Continue the discussion at forums.talkingpointsmemo.com

4 more replies

Participants

Avatar for system1 Avatar for cabchi Avatar for pluckyinky Avatar for ncsteve Avatar for Patriott Avatar for chammy Avatar for grindelwald Avatar for ryanp

Continue Discussion
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Deputy Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: