In just a few hours, Senate Republicans will be put to the test. Both they and leading Democrats say they’re a hair away from reaching a bipartisan framework on financial regulatory reform, yet Republicans have decided to block Democrats from bringing the issue to the Senate floor. In response–and because it makes for great politics–Democrats will try to break that filibuster at 5 pm tonight. Even if they fail, they reason, they succeed at painting Republicans with a pro-Wall Street brush.
So what various twists and turns might this story takes as that pivotal moment approaches? Here are a few to be on the look out for:
The GOP blinks: The fact of the matter is that, if a deal really is imminent, there’s no harm in putting legislation on the floor and amending it when the compromise is reached. And for that reason, some Republicans don’t really see the point of taking a politically toxic vote just to make a symbolic point. For that reason, it’s possible that one or more of them will decide to break from the party. Most Republicans at the center of this debate–Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Banking Committee Ranking Member Richard Shelby, Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN)–say they think all 41 members will stand together, thus sustaining the filibuster. But somebody could blink. One leading candidate: Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME). She’s sounded most amenable to working with Democrats. She supports tight regulation of derivatives, and with the Dem bill trending in the direction of stiff new rules governing the trading of those products, she could bite.
The Dems blink: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid could choose to delay the vote. Frankly, this isn’t very likely: Dems are actually somewhat eager for the GOP to go on the record blocking debate on reining in Wall Street. But if Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd appeals to him–if a deal with Shelby is at hand, say–he could back off for a day or two.
A Dem Spoiler: If tonight’s supermajority test vote fails 59-41 on a party-line vote, with all Dems on one side and all Republicans on the other, Democrats will be able to draw a stark contrast between themselves and the GOP. What would muddy that contrast significantly, though, is if there’s a lurking spoiler on the Democrats’ side of the aisle. If Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) or another conservative Democrat decides to side with the GOP tonight, be prepared to hear a lot from the GOP about “bipartisan opposition” to the Democrats bill.
They reach a deal: As of this morning, Shelby has said a deal before tonight’s vote is unlikely. But you never know! If a breakthrough happens, Republicans could drop their filibuster, or Democrats could move the vote back, and the legislative process will proceed smoothly.
The GOP drops out: Reid’s decision to force a vote is nothing if not a power play. And Republicans are nothing if not petulant. If they’re looking for an excuse to drop out of negotiations, or take them in a painstakingly slow direction, they could throw a hissy fit over the vote, and throw the legislative process into complete disarray. They’re not threatening to do that by any means. In fact Shelby, Corker, and McConnell have all said they’ll deal with the vote, while talks with Democrats continue in the background–the vote, they say, won’t poison the well. But this is the GOP. They’ve practically made a habit of drawing out negotiations over major legislation until the last moment, then finding some excuse for backing out. So let’s not rule that out.
In the end, perhaps the most likely scenario is that talks continue, the vote fails, the filibuster drags on, Democrats take to the airwaves to lambaste the GOP, and then in a few days, with a deal in hand, there’s a mulligan and the bill moves to the floor. But you never know on Capitol Hill. We’ll be looking for tells all day.
