The new Fairleigh Dickinson poll of the Delaware Senate race provides yet another data point that Democratic nominee Chris Coons is favored to win over surprise Republican nominee Republican Christine O’Donnell — and that the GOP would have picked up this seat for sure if their primary had nominated Rep. Mike Castle.
The numbers: Coons 53%, O’Donnell 36%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error. There is no prior Fairleigh Dickinson poll for direct comparison.
At the same time, the poll also shows that Mike Castle — the moderate GOP Congressman who was the original choice of the party establishment for the nomination, before the Tea Party-backed O’Donnell won the primary — would lead Coons by 50%-36% if he were the Republican nominee.
From the pollster’s analysis:
Democrats have largely united behind Coons: 85% say that they will vote for their party’s nominee. However, only 68% of Republicans say that they will vote for O’Donnell. Independents lean to Coons by 46% to 37%.
“Typically, Republicans are more loyal to their party than Democrats,” said Dan Cassino, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for the university’s PublicMind research group. “This hesitation by Republicans is hurting O’Donnell.”
The TPM Poll Average gives Coons over O’Donnell of 57.7%-37.5%. And just for laughs, with all the post-primary polls that have indeed included Castle, the average for a hypothetical Castle/Coons match-up would give Castle a lead over Coons of 49.0%-35.9%.
