In it, but not of it. TPM DC

The Hill: Republicans Set To Pick Up 50 Or More House Seats


All but two of the 42 districts polled currently have a Democrat in office. Out of these selected districts, polling found the Republican candidate leading in 31 races, with 4 other contests tied. Democrats had a polling lead in only seven districts.

The Hill notes that there are 15 Democratically controlled districts that are leaning so heavily toward a GOP victory that polling wasn't even conducted on the races.

The poll's data extends beyond Congressional horseraces, as it sheds some light on President Obama's role in the potential shakeup. Not a single district polled gave Obama an approval rating above 50%. Among independent voters, who recent surveys have found leaning more in favor of Republican candidates, the President's approval rating never eclipsed 41%. Among all districts polled, at least 68% of respondents stated their sentiments about Obama would be important when heading to the polls next week.

In the survey's last round of polling, Republicans lead six out of 10 toss-up districts controlled by Democratic veterans.

According to the TPM Poll Average, Republicans are ahead in the generic congressional ballot question 49.6%-42.0%.