You have to wonder whether Chris Dodd ought to be having second thoughts about not being a candidate in Connecticut’s crazy Senate race — or whether he’s breathing a sigh of relief that he chose to sit this wild ride out.
It’s been a long and strange road in this race. An embattled Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd’s retirement made way for a stronger nominee in state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal — who has himself become embattled due to his own scandals, and is still leading the disorganized GOP opposition.
Back in December of last year, Dodd was flailing in the polls as a result of his position as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee during the financial crisis, and questions about mortgage deals he had received. Even Vice President Biden, a close friend of Dodd’s, said with his trademark candor that Dodd was getting “the living bejesus” beaten out of him.
Dodd’s reelection prospects looked bleak. So he announced his retirement in January. A Public Policy Polling (D) survey that was conducted just before his announcement, and released right afterward, showed Dodd trailing the Republican candidates, former Rep. Rob Simmons and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, but Blumenthal leading them handsomely.
Then things got really crazy.
Blumenthal got in a heap of trouble in May, when it was reported by the New York Times that he had in the past made statements about serving in the Vietnam War — when he had in fact served in the military during the war, but never actually went to Vietnam. A Rasmussen poll taken during the controversy showed him losing support — but then a Quinnipiac poll a a week and a half later showed no significant change at all.
Meanwhile, the Republican field has been a real mess if there ever was one. The state GOP endorsed McMahon for the nomination. Although Simmons’s name would still be on the ballot and he could fight out a primary, he nevertheless suspended his campaign, effectively dropping out — but he also said that McMahon couldn’t win, then took that back. So clearly there were no hard feelings at all.
McMahon, meanwhile, failed to make inroads in the polls against Blumenthal. In her ads she’s sought to turn her wacky pro-wrestling past into a plus — first with an ad where she called it a “soap opera” that isn’t real, and later with an ad pitching her as a tough businesswoman.
And then Simmons came back. First he aired an ad reminding voters that he was “still on the ballot.” At first he demurred on saying there was any change in his status at all — but then openly proclaimed that he was indeed running. And he has another ad taking a jab at McMahon’s big personal spending on the race, saying that public service should be earned, not bought.
So where do things stand now? Blumenthal appears to have withstood a seriously damaging story, and still leads McMahon by 50%-40% in a new Quinnipiac poll, though this is slightly narrower than previous polls. The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 51.4%-39.6%. McMahon still leads in the August 10 Republican primary by 48.9%-28.7%, plus 13.9% for financial commentator Peter Schiff.
But boy, this has been a wacky race. Let’s see how much crazier the race can get between now and November — and whether the Republicans will be able to actually make a serious dent here.
