House Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot has slightly increased in the wake of the bombshell hearing for now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, according to a newly released survey from CNN — numbers that conflict with some other recent polling and push back on the narrative that the Kavanaugh hearings were a political win for the GOP.
Democrats lead in the new survey of likely voters by 54 percent to 41 percent, a 13-point edge. That’s up from 10 points when SSRN last polled for CNN in early September.
Those numbers are some of the best recent poll figures for Democrats. And while they should be looked at in the broader scope of things, they suggest the building narrative that the Kavanaugh confirmation was a disaster for Democrats isn’t totally correct.
Of the eight reputable national pollsters to survey the generic congressional poll since the Sept. 27 hearings, three including CNN have found an increase for Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot since the last time those pollsters were in the field, three have found Democrats’ lead shrinking, and two have found essentially no change.
That’s a sign that at least on the House side, the Kavanaugh fights may have had a negligible effect on the overall battle.
That doesn’t mean the confirmation hearings couldn’t be deeply problematic for Democrats in certain states and districts, especially red states. That’s because the Kavanaugh fight undoubtedly galvanized both parties’ bases, and in places with key Senate races like Tennessee and North Dakota that’s certainly not helpful, as anything that polarizes both sides equally in the national fight will only help Republicans in Republican strongholds.
Senate Democratic strategists tell TPM that their candidates in the deep-red states saw some overall degradation in their numbers around the time of Kavanaugh hearings, numbers that have been borne out by some other recent public surveys.
But the argument from some Republican strategists that the Kavanaugh fight has drained the blue wave seems far-fetched, according to this survey and others.
Not possible the MSM narrative must be that the world is collapsing for the Dems because they stood up to GOP over Kavanaugh. Obviously this is a fake poll
A ray of sunshine in an otherwise cloudy time!
NO, this does not “contradict” other surveys!!!
Context matters. This survey is (1) high quality (it is not a RAS Push-poll with a pro-Rethug “likely voters” screen), and (2) it was taken in the Oct 4-7 window.
The public is moving around in their views, there is a lot going on, and it takes a while for events to sink in. Everyone was emotional around the KAV confirmation, and the “news” and Trump’s nasty victory lap, along with the ongoing denigration of women is getting a lot of coverage. It takes a while for these things to filter through.
P.s. I think the “narrative” has more to do with a set of shitty/on-line polls, and the lack of quality data. The recent non-Rassmussan style polls have been:
The last full “quality” poll was Quinnipiac on 9/27-30 which showed the race D +7, and before that Marist on 9/22-24 (D +7) and Pew 9/18-24 (D+10). So the most recent quality data is now two weeks or so old.
The last CNN poll was 9/6-9 and it showed the race at +10D (42% R/52%D) the current results of +13% D (41%R/54% D) may be a little high, but they show what I would expect to see, which is that “undecided” voters (who tend to be lower information voters and skew female) are breaking for the Democrats, about what you would expect with a minority administration playing to its base.
P.s.s. This piece by Stu Rothenberg sees things the same way I suggest above, and note that this came out before today’s CNN/SSRS poll. https://www.rollcall.com/news/opinion/beware-the-pre-election-final-month-musings
Totally fake poll. Everyone knows that the meanie liberals have fired up the Republican base, making them energized and totally voting now despite planning to not before.
And don’t worry, I’m sure the media will be breathlessly highlighting THIS poll, just like they did the other one.
My reaction to this news is ethical and tactical. Ethically, I hope–I pray–that the likelihood of criminal sexual assault does not raise a person’s standing in the eyes of most Americans. Yes, I know that there are a lot of men (and their female enablers) who are afraid of contemporary cultural and political changes. They are certainly not a majority of the population. I hope they are not a majority of next month’s electorate.
Tactically, I think that whatever satisfaction the pro-Kavanaugh, pro-victim-blaming crowd felt with Kavanaugh’s confirmation, that satisfaction will dissipate somewhat over the next month, while the righteous anger over Dr. Ford’s treatment–including presidential insults–will only grow.