The Minnesota Democratic primary for governor is officially over, with state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher having conceded the race to former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton.
“I offered him my full support. He will make an excellent governor,” Kelliher said in a statement.
Dayton won the primary by a margin of 41%-40%, plus 18% for former state House Dem leader Matt Entenza. By late this morning, Dayton’s raw-vote lead stood at about 7,000 votes, for a percentage lead of 0.55% — just beyond the 0.5% margin that would have triggered a recount.
Kelliher, who had been the state party convention’s officially-endorsed candidate in the primary, led for almost the entire vote count last night, as her strongholds in the Twin Cities area dominated the early numbers. The state party’s get-out-the-vote organization enabled her to very nearly overcome polls showing a double-digit lead for Dayton.
However, Dayton overtook her as votes came in from the Iron Range district in the north, where the steelworkers union broke from the party’s normal GOTV operation and were supporting him, in addition to wins for him elsewhere in the state. The Associated Press had called the race for Dayton, but he did not declare victory until Kelliher would concede. After all, this is a state that already saw a huge recount recently, with the recount and litigation in the 2008 U.S. Senate race between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman.
Dayton will now face Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. The TPM Poll Average gives Dayton a lead of 42.9%-32.4%-10.2% over Emmer and Horner. Although Minnesota is a Democratic-leaning state in most respects, a Dem has not won a gubernatorial election since 1986 — but due to various weaknesses and gaffes on Emmer’s part, this year presents one of the best openings for the party in a long time.
