The venerated Cook Political Report followed the Rothenberg Political Report in calling the Massachusetts special Senate election a “toss up” today. The move is based on what the staff at Cook write is “unbelievable intensity” among supporters of Scott Brown (R).
The publication sounds as surprised as anyone that the race to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate has become such a tough one for Democrats, and though it’s now listed as anyone’s to win, Cook still says “at the end of the day it’s unlikely” that Martha Coakley (D) “ends up losing” next week.
“After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972,” Cook writes.
Coakley has squandered the traditionally safe base for Democratic Senate candidates in Massachusetts with an “an overly-cautious, somewhat clumsy campaign,” Cook writes. The result is an electorate that still leans Democratic, but might just vote Republican Jan. 19.
“To the extent Coakley may still have a tiny advantage, it appears not to meet the normal standard we have for a ‘lean’ rating: a competitive race but one in which one party has a clear advantage,” Cook writes. “We see no clear advantage.”
