So with former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) having announced that he’s waiting until Spring 2010 to decide whether he’ll run for Governor of Minnesota, it’s worth asking the question: Does Norm still have a political future.
I spoke with Prof. Larry Jacobs of the University of Minnesota, and he said that Coleman’s political stock has certainly fallen by a significant margin as a result of his loss to Democratic challenger Al Franken in the heavily-litigated 2008 Senate race. But there could still be a chance to come back — and under Minnesota’s peculiar system of nominating candidates, Norm might just be taking the best road available.
Minnesota political parties traditionally don’t hold real primaries, but instead go through a system of precinct caucuses, county conventions and a state convention. If a candidate can get a super-majority of delegates at the state convention, the party then officially endorses that candidate and the opponents are expected by custom to drop out. The September primary is still officially held, but would be a mere formality.
“It’s hard to get the majority unless you’re a clear frontrunner,” said Jacbos. “I think it’s a fairly shrewd move, with everything going on in his personal life, particularly his debt and his exhaustion.”
The idea, Jacobs said, would be for Coleman to skip the precinct caucuses this December, leaving those to the roughly half-dozen Republican candidates already in the race. If no obvious frontrunner emerged, Coleman would be able to get in at the convention in the late Spring, courting delegates as it went through multiple ballots. And if the convention were to deadlock, that would send the race to the September primary — in which Coleman’s name recognition would help tremendously.
And on the flip-side, Coleman would have faced a lot of problems if he actually had gotten into the race now, thanks to his damaged reputation. If he wants to run for office again, he’ll have to hope that time heals all wounds, and that nobody else in the Republican field emerges as a new star for the party.
“I was surprised, actually, at the amount of doubt in Republican circles about whether Norm Coleman is still politically viable. I think he’s got significant and unique political assets. but in talking to Republicans, many of them just feel like Coleman is kind of tapped out. the state is tired of him, is what a lot of them have said,” said Jacobs. “And I look at it and I say, okay, the guy’s got almost universal name recognition, he’s got phenomenal fundraising ability, he’s got unparalleled experience running statewide in competitive elections. I can’t think of anyone else in the field who comes close to these things.”
“Clearly, Coleman’s decision is an acknowledgement of the reality of his defeat to Franken,” Jacobs later added. “This is really the chickens coming home to roost. That defeat has clearly set him back profoundly in terms of his political options. Not long ago, Coleman was considered the top talent in the state.”
