The retirement of Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA), the third Democrat to do so in the last three weeks, has opened up a new swing sweat for Democrats to defend. So what’s the outlook for the seat — and for the party environment itself?
“It’s a tough district,” a Democratic source in Washington state told us, also adding: “It’s a rural district and a suburban district. It’s a swing district, but it’s been trending Democratic.”
Baird’s district voted twice for George W. Bush by narrow margins — 48%-46% in 2000, and 50%-48% in 2004 — before switching to Barack Obama in 2008 by a 53%-45% margin.
Democratic state Rep. Deb Wallace has already gotten into the race, while the Dem source said that there are three other possible candidates for the nomination: state Sen. Craig Pridemore, state Rep. Brendan Williams, and Clark County Commissioner Steve Stuart.
On the Republican side, three candidates were already in the race before Baird’s announcement: former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs David Castillo; accountant David Hedrick; and Washougal city councilman Jon Russell. A fourth candidate has now entered the race, state Rep. Jaime Herrera. A Republican source said there are yet three more possible Republican candidates: state Sen. Don Benton, who lost to Baird in an open-seat race in 1998; state House Minority Leader Richard DeBolt; and state Sen. Joe Zarelli.
“Well, I think it definitely becomes a tossup now,” the GOP source said. “This is an area that President Bush won twice. It’s always been very competitive, the environment is going to make it more of a tossup, and I think it’s gonna help it lean Republican.”
Does Baird’s retirement — coming in the wake of retirements by Reps. Dennis Moore (D-KS) and John Tanner (D-TN) — presage a trend that goes beyond just the individual circumstances of these three men? “I think it’s actually several trends,” the GOP source said confidently. “I think with some people they understand it’s cyclical, they understand the environment is real good for Republicans, and they just don’t want to have to face a tough reelection battle, especially those that haven’t had one in a long time.”
“This opens up a new trend, the source added, “of people who are being pushed out because of frustrations.”
DCCC press secretary Ryan Rudominer dismissed any GOP chest-pounding, telling us in an e-mail that it’s the Republicans who are botching up the cycle, and even have more open seats to defend than the Dems do:
We are prepared to work with state and local officials to defend and win these seats held by retiring Democratic members. The only thing that’s surprising here is that the NRCC tries to claim credit for any retirements given that they only have 4 million cash on hand and just committed political malfeasance in the special election in NY-23, what was a Republican held seat since the 1800s.
At this point last cycle, there were eighteen Republicans who said they would not run for reelection. So far this cycle, three Democrats have announced retirements while six more Democrats are running for higher office. Twelve Republicans have announced they are running for other office.
