Can Bill Maher Really Knock Off This Republican Congressman?

Is liberal comedian Bill Maher dreaming or can he really knock off a six-term Republican congressman in the midterm elections?

The outlook is not good, say election handicappers.

The politically incorrect host of HBO’s “Real Time With Bill Maher” announced on Friday he will target Minnesota Rep. John Kline, the chair of the House Education and Workforce Committee, in his “flip a district” campaign. He said he’ll make repeated visits to the district for stand-up comedy in an effort to motivate voters to oust the “crummy” and “corrupt” Kline on Nov. 4.

Maher might have picked the wrong congressman, because many factors indicate Kline will be difficult to unseat. So difficult that the House Democrats’ campaign arm is hardly expending any resources to seriously compete there. Kline is facing the same Democratic opponent, former State Rep. Mike Obermueller, whom he defeated by 8 points in 2012, a friendlier year for Democrats than 2014 is expected to be.

Election forecaster Larry Sabato predicts a “likely Republican” victory. The Cook Political Report doesn’t register Kline’s district in its list of 70 House seats that are competitive or could become competitive — he’s considered safe. And the Rothenberg Political Report says Kline has a solid hold on the seat.

“They are all wrong,” Obermueller told TPM in an interview on Monday. “We are going to be competitive and this is a seat we can absolutely flip. Mr. Kline has had an extremely low profile. People don’t know his voting record. He looks like a statesman — he looks the part, but people don’t know his voting record.”

Obermueller is pleased that his sleepy race has received a boost from Maher.

“The effect we’ll see from Bill Maher is to put a spotlight on that voting record. And that’s why Mr. Kline is worried,” the Democrat said.

Kline is quiet but reliably conservative, with a voting record that Obermueller likens to that of tea party firebrand Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), citing his votes to repeal Obamacare, “privatize Social Security and voucherize Medicare” and against the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act. Obermueller said he has no polling to show on the race, but claims that the more the voters get to know Kline’s voting record, the likelier they are to oppose the Republican incumbent.

A potential ray of hope for Obermueller is that the district became less Republican after redistricting following the 2010 election, losing conservative Carver County and picking up southern portions of the Twin Cities metro area. The Cook Political Report’s partisan voter index rates it a R+2, a slight GOP edge. Obama squeaked out a victory there in 2012 by 0.1 percentage points.

“The big issue for Minnesota is turnout. We already are a high turnout state,” said Obermueller, who describes himself as fiscally moderate and socially progressive. “So I really believe Minnesota is going to buck the turnout trend.”

Maher also attacked Kline as “the champion of for-profit colleges,” describing characterizing many of them as “not real colleges.” He said, “These places are scams and they thrive because John Kline is bought and paid for.”

Kline’s campaign spokesman, Troy Young, responded by associating Obermueller with some of the Maher’s more controversial comments over the years.

“Minnesotans are tired of sleazy and slimy politics, but DFL candidate Mike Obermueller certainly isn’t,” he said. “Maher saluted 9/11 terrorists and called our troops cowardly,’ he repeatedly has degraded Christians and calls them ‘schizophrenic,’ and he repugnantly compared special-needs children to ‘dogs,’ yet Mike Obermueller promotes this behavior essentially naming Maher as his campaign manager.”

Watch Maher’s segment Friday on HBO announcing Kline as his “winning loser.”