Most political observers say 2010 is a good year to be a Republican running for office. That’s not a huge surprise — off-year elections are generally better for the party not occupying the White House. But this year has been characterized by an extraordinary anti-incumbent fervor, which makes it even worse for Democrats, who run both houses of Congress in addition to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
It’s still early, but the midterm tradition plus the negative view of incumbents could mean some of the Democratic party’s best-known Senators could find themselves falling to Republican challengers who can take advantage of their fired-up conservative base (not to mention apathy among Democratic base voters.)
After the jump, we’ll look at four Democratic Senators who find themselves behind in polls as spring draws near.
Harry Reid (NV): Though the GOP still has to choose a nominee to face the incredibly well-funded and powerful Senate Majority Leader, polls show that whichever Republican ends up facing Reid in November will likely enter the general election with an advantage.
Recent polls show former NV Republican party chair Sue Lowden leading the crowded GOP field. The TPM Poll Average for a Lowden-Reid matchup show Lowden ahead by a margin of 49.8-39.1.
Reid trails other potential Republican nominees, too. But a poll yesterday showed that infighting among conservatives could prove to be Reid’s path to reelection. Asked what they would do if a Tea Party candidate was on the ballot along with Reid and a Republican, Nevadans gave Reid a slim lead in the three-way race.
Blanche Lincoln (AR): There’s no doubt about it — Arkansas’ senior Senator is in serious trouble as she seeks another term in office. Her poll numbers are dangerously low against virtually all potential GOP candidates, and now she faces what early indications suggest will be a tough primary fight against Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
Against the most well-known candidate in the GOP field, Rep. John Boozman, Lincoln is down by double digits in recent polling. But Boozman entered the race only recently, meaning he hasn’t been a factor in most polls.
That’s not the case for state Sen. Gilbert Baker, whose been in the running for the GOP nomination for a while now. The TPM Poll Average of a Gilbert-Lincoln matchup shows Gilbert ahead by a margin of 50.0-35.6.
Arlen Specter (PA): Although a relative newcomer to the Democratic Senate caucus, Specter has quickly joined the ranks of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents. The latest polling may show him ahead of GOP candidate Pat Toomey, but Specter’s overall polling record in the race shows him down to Toomey, whose popularity with the Republican base forced Specter out of the GOP in the first place.
The TPM Poll Average for a Specter-Toomey race shows Toomey ahead by a margin of 44.5-39.3.
Unlike Lincoln, however, the Democratic primary appears to be headed toward an easy win for the incumbent Specter. The TPM Poll Average of the Specter-Joe Sestak primary shows Specter ahead by a margin of 43.4-29.2.
Michael Bennet (CO): Bennet, like Specter, is a relative newcomer to Senate. He was appointed last year to take over Interior Secretary Ken Salazar’s seat. Since that time, the essentially unknown Bennet has trailed the prominent Republicans that hope to unseat him.
Former Colorado Lt. Gov. Jane Norton leads the GOP field. The TPM Poll Average of a Bennet-Norton race shows Norton ahead by a margin of 44.8-37.8.
