Steve Kingmaker: Pre-Screening The GOP’s 2016 Presidential Field

Like it or not, the 2016 presidential cycle has begun. It’s theoretically an open process for both parties. But what characterizes it so far is a remarkable contrast between a Democratic Party that seems almost settled (though not universally happy about it) on a single candidate, Hillary Clinton, and a Republican Party with a potentially gigantic field and no true front-runner.

There are perils and advantages associated with both conditions. But the Republicans elites that have successfully sought to make their party’s nominating calendar more compact are clearly worried that a protracted competition among a large field could be destructive. And after the experience of 2008 and 2012, Republicans have good reason to fear that even their most “electable” candidates could be pulled to the right in a nomination struggle dominated by conservative activists and rank-and-file Tea Parties in early states.

Yes, the GOP field will eventually be “culled,” but what’s remarkable at the moment is that it still seems to be expanding as we move into the cycle. Among the “mentioned” at the moment are Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Rob Portman of Ohio and Marco Rubio of Florida; former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania; Govs. Chris Christie of New Jersey, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, John Kasich of Ohio, Mike Pence of Indiana and Scott Walker of Wisconsin; former Govs. Jeb Bush of Florida and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas; political novice and perpetually short-listed Condoleezza Rice. And if all else fails, there’s also Mitt Romney, whose wife Ann seems to have put the kibosh on another campaign, but could presumably be open to something like a draft (if such a thing exists any more).

The device the American political system has invented for large, unwieldy candidate fields is the “cattle call” — a term borrowed from the showbiz practice of open auditions. Before the stage of the cycle when formal debates are held, candidates are herded through serial speeches, sometimes with Q&A, and sometimes specialized vetting, often for a special-interest audience.

In the GOP, Christian Right groups specifically and movement-conservatives generally are fond of cattle calls since it provides the right environment to remind candidates they are begging for support despite the handicap of their predecessors’ many acts of betrayal. Often the tone at cattle calls is set by the candidates most uninhibited in serving up red meat — you can expect Ted Cruz and Ben Carson to be regular crowd favorites — and that exerts considerable pressure on others to keep up with the ideological In Crowd. It’s no accident that it was at a 2012 cattle call (the annual CPAC event in Washington) that Mitt Romney hilariously described himself as “severely conservative.” It’s that kind of a format.

I say all this by way of reporting that unless something changes the first serious cattle call of the 2016 cycle, a full month before CPAC, will be the “Freedom Summit” in Des Moines on January 24. Its cosponsors are Citizens United (of Supreme Court fame) and U.S. Rep. Steve King.

Now to national audiences King is mostly thought of as a wild man and a bit of a joke — the successor to Colorado’s Tom Tancredo as Nativist-In-Chief, the boon companion of Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), the launcher of a hundred utterances others call gaffes and he calls common sense. You know, the guy whose table Rand Paul fled post-haste when he got into a yelling match with young Dreamers.

But in Iowa GOP circles, Steve King is a really big deal. He took Democrats’ best shot in 2012–a well-funded challenge in a significantly modified district from popular former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack — and won easily. It is universally conceded that the 2014 Senate nomination was his for the asking; had he agreed to run, we might never have learned about that hog-castratin’ mother-farmer-soldier Sen.-elect Joni Ernst. He’s never really tried to become an Iowa Caucus king-maker before, however; he endorsed Fred Thompson in 2008 late in the day, and didn’t endorse anyone — not even his friend Michele — in 2012. And now he’s made it clear all that will change in 2016.

So the field (Cruz, Huckabee and Santorum have already confirmed attendance, but few will have the courage to diss King by not showing) will face whatever ideological abattoir their host has designed for them. Given the timing and King’s obsessions I think it’s safe to expect two demands to be front and center: blood oaths to (a) rescind any and all executive action by Obama on immigration within a second or two of taking office, and (b) reject any Obamacare “fixes,” however logical or consistent with long-range conservative goals. That’s aside from the usual litmus tests involving total abortion bans, rejection of same-sex marriage, elimination of any federal role in education, disabling of EPA, enactment of a “Cut-Cap-Balance” constitutional amendment that permanently shrinks the federal government, and a policy of heavily armed, raging Islamophobia at home and abroad.

To put it another way, the reigning 2014 media narrative, whereby an ascendant Republican Establishment had tamed the Tea Party once and for all and created a disciplined, “pragmatic” party that wouldn’t frighten small children, is going to get a real test on January 24.

Ed Kilgore is the principal blogger for Washington Monthly’s Political Animal blog, Managing Editor of The Democratic Strategist, and a Senior Fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute. Earlier he worked for three governors and a U.S. Senator. He can be followed on Twitter at @ed_kilgore.