Collins benefited from a tendency among Mainers to split tickets in 2008, when 58 percent backed Barack Obama, and 61 backed her. The same tendency helped her in 2020.

Trade associations sound innocuous but the term obscures what they really are: lobbying groups that advocate for policies that benefit specific business interests. Among the groups that could potentially qualify for loans under Collins’ and Rubio’s bill are PhRMA, the nation’s top drug lobby, and the American Chemistry Council, which represents big chemical and fossil fuel interests.

Susan Collins’ ability to win under these rules is affected by her standing in the state, the configuration of the slate of candidates, and a pattern of partisan polarization toward ranked choice in Maine.