Flurry Of Florida Polls Show Race Tightening But Clinton Still Ahead


A recent rush of Florida polls indicate the state still leans toward Hillary Clinton, but the race has tightened.

Of the seven different Florida polls of likely voters conducted after the final presidential debate, five of them showed Clinton ahead, one showed Trump ahead, and one found a tie.

In the five polls where she was ahead, the former secretary of state led by as few as two points in the University of North Florida survey and as much as four points in the CBS/YouGov and Opinion Savvy surveys.

The tied poll was a survey done by GOP pollster Remington Research Group, showing the candidates matched at 46 percent.

The significant exception to a Clinton lead was the Selzer/Bloomberg poll released Wednesday, showing Trump ahead by a single point in a head-to-head match and by two points when third-party candidates are included.

The Selzer/Bloomberg poll pushed Florida into a tossup on TPM’s Electoral Scoreboard (defined as less than a two-percentage point spread between the candidates).

While poll appeared to be an outlier among the other six recent polls either favoring Clinton or showing a tie, Selzer & Company is a well-regarded pollster, earning an A+ rank in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings.

With Florida appearing tighter than it has been, Trump put an emphasis on the Sunshine State in his campaign, visiting five different cities within four days since the last debate.

Florida has consistently favored the Democratic nominee since Sept. 26 on TPM’s Electoral Scoreboard, ranging from a tossup favoring Clinton, to the state “leaning toward Clinton,” or favoring the Democrat between two and five points.

At her peak, Clinton led by 4.1 points in PollTracker’s regression in mid-October. Clinton still holds the lead in TPM’s PollTracker Average for Florida, 46 to 44.5.

Masthead Masthead
Editor & Publisher:
Managing Editor:
Senior News Editor:
Assistant Editor:
Editor at Large:
Investigations Desk:
Senior Political Correspondent:
Senior Editor:
Front Page Editor:
Editor for Prime & Special Projects:
General Manager & General Counsel:
Executive Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Publishing Associate:
Front-End Developer:
Senior Designer: