There’s another poll of Iowa out tonight (from PPP) and it shows the basic picture as the others — Newt Gingrich with a solid lead followed by Romney and Paul battling for second (in this case Paul wins that battle).
What’s more interesting are the internals.
Two points stick out to me. First, confirming a point Benjy Sarlin made last week: Newt’s core constituency is old people. In this poll, Newt’s margin is 27% to 16% overall but spikes to 37% to 18% with people over 65. Newt also runs strong against self-identified Tea Partiers, with Romney picking up a mere 4%.
The biggest revelation though is electability. 33% of respondents said Gingrich was most electable versus 23% for Romney. Preferences tend to heavily color perceptions of electability. But c’mon. Elite opinion doesn’t think that’s true. But the available polling data seems to back that up overwhelmingly. Mitt’s close to tied with President Obama, with Obama holding a razor thin margin nationwide and in enough key states to win. But totally margin of error. Really a toss up. On the other hand, Obama crushes Newt. And I think even many Newt stalwarts would grant that Newt is really a creature of the right-wing id.
Polls aren’t perfect. But they’re pretty predictive with people the public knows and has settled opinions about. Which means people like Newt Gingrich. The data we have strongly points to the conclusion that Romney is far, far more likely to defeat President Obama than Newt Gingrich. But it looks like Romney may have his work cut out for him making that case.
