Looking Like It Could Be 53

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November 2, 2010 10:59 p.m.

As of now the Democrats have 51 Senate seats in the win column. Alaska seems like a battle between two Republicans, with Lisa Murkowski the apparent winner, though with write-ins there’s no telling. That leaves Washington state and Colorado. At the moment, Patty Murray is about 14,000 votes ahead and Michael Bennet is about 8,000 votes behind. But there’s more to the story.

In both states the pattern of what votes still remain to be counted appears to favor the Democrat. It seems most clear in Colorado. There Boulder and Denver counties are just a bit more than half reported. And that’s where the blue votes come from. So it really looks like the math favors him. Indeed, if that’s really true, it seems hard to figure how Buck can hold on since the margin is so close right now.

I have less of a sense of the political geography of Washington state other than that King’s County (Seattle) is where the Dems get the lion’s share of their vote. But from what I’m hearing the math looks favorable to Murray there too.

If those both come into the Democratic column, it would mean that the Dems won each of the seats they were predicted to win. Basically, West Virginia, California and Washington, along with two they weren’t — Nevada and Colorado.

What’s got to be tantalizing for Dems is that they came pretty close in two other states — Pennsylvania and Illinois — but came up just short.

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