I’m seeing a lot of Republicans pointing to the VA results and saying that whoever gets the victory, a majority of Virginia delegates (and other similar states) will be ‘available’ for an anti-Trump unity candidate at the GOP convention in Cleveland in July.
Obviously this all presumes that Trump ends up with a plurality of delegates, not a majority. That could happen of course. But I think it’s worth noting that if Donald Trump is the clear plurality winner of delegates and the primary popular vote and someone who got much less (or didn’t run at all) comes out of the convention as nominee, I think that’s basically the end of the election. I don’t say anybody can’t win – not Trump, not Cruz, not Sanders, not Clinton. You just don’t know. But I think anyone who comes out of that kind of process as nominee is pretty close to ‘can’t win.’ There’s just too much electoral blood on the floor, too many people who feel like they were robbed, too much inherent and lasting controversy etc. Not ‘can’t’. But pretty close to ‘can’t’.
I think there are probably a number of Republicans who would say that both on principle and in longterm political terms that’s still the best result. And if I were in their shoes I think I’d probably agree. But again, someone will get inaugurated in January 2017. And if that happens, I think it’s highly unlikely to be a Republican.
