Big Deal Either Way

E.J. Dionne had an interesting point at WaPo yesterday. There are a lot of Dems out there hoping against hope that these likely voter screens are way off in predicting who’s actually going to turn out today. And there’s actually enough evidence out there to create some basis for the hope. But let’s say that doesn’t happen. Let’s say the polls hit it pretty much on the head. It still an almost unprecedented situation because the results for likely voters are so different this year from those for registered voters. They’re always different and a likely screen usually pushes the numbers in a more Republican direction, since likely voters tend to come from more Republican demographic groups. But still, the gap this time is huge.