Just for future reference let’s nip one pre-meme in the bud.
There are already a number of Republicans arguing that the election tide was beginning to turn their way before Hurricane Foley came ashore last Friday.
Not so.
At some point I’ll write in greater detail about this. But I believe statistics, as well as observation, will show the claim is simply false.
Republicans and the president did get a modest but real boost in late August and the first couple weeks of September. By the middle of September it was reasonable to ask, as I think Charlie Cook did, whether the small GOP uptick was just a blip or the beginning of trend that would grow toward the November election.
From that point on though things began to change. It was observable in the polls. And it was most due, I believe, to the issue of Iraq moving back to center stage of news, with stories like the hidden NIE, the first hints of the Woodward and other stories. Also playing a role was the GOP infighting over the torture bill and the Ney indictment.
Even as bleak as things look at the moment for the GOP we don’t know what will happen on November 7th. And it’s important for everyone to realize that is not just rhetoric. It’s the uncomfortable truth. We don’t. But whatever happens on November 7th, the GOP wasn’t on the upswing before Foley. They were back on the skids.
