Is the Dem tide putting Sen. Menendez back on top?
You have to look long and far this season to find a Democratic candidate who is not exceeding expectations for their race. But one of the few has been right next door here in New Jersey, in the race between Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and Tom Kean, Jr. (R). (Menendez was a congressman appointed to serve by Gov. John Corzine (D) to serve the remainder of Corzine’s term in the senate.) Here’s our list of the polls in that race going back to July. The race has always been close and most of the polls, I think, have been within the margin of error. But the pattern is still pretty clear. Kean took the lead in September after being close behind for most of summer. But that lead now seems to have vanished. Seven polls have come out in October. Kean was ahead only in one, and that one was released ten days ago. If you toss out the Zogby poll which has Menendez up by ten points (I’m having less and less confidence in Zogby’s numbers), Menendez’s average lead is only like 3 or 4 points. The statisticians will note that that’s probably not a statistically signficant margin. But when all the polls are coming up with the same narrow margin, I think you can say that Menendez is now back on top.
Normally, an incumbent under 50% with that kind of narrow ‘lead’ is in trouble. But Menendez isn’t really quite the incumbent. And with the probable Democrat tide, I think that will be enough.
I’ll be curious to see how much the Republicans pour into this race over the next three weeks. It could end up being the race that decides who’s in the majority next year.
