TPM Reader SJ checks in from West Virginia 2 …
My congressional district WV-02 is suddenly looking a whole lot less secure for the Republican incumbent, Shelley Moore Capito. The RNCC did a poll in mid-July (around the time of a Bush fund-raiser) but there’s been no public polls for this race.
Reading the tea leaves, this is a sleeper race that is more competitive than generally given credit.
Most Telling
1) I was polled by Venture Data a week ago (Monday, October 9) prior to the first candidate debate (10/11). The poll bordered on a push poll when it tested out several lines of attack on the challenger (Mike Callaghan). After testing out those attacks it inquired about the impact of the Foley scandal. It was obviously a Republican funding poll. Their biggest fear: Foley keeps Republicans home.
2) The next day, Capito rolled out her first ads directly attacking Callaghan. An incumbent in a safe seat never mentions their opponent by name. For her to go on the direct attack means the polls must not have looked so good.
3) Later in the week the RNCC disclosed funding for THE TARRANCE GROUP, 10/12/2006, $8,235, for a PRO-Capito survey. This is perhaps a different poll to test the impact of the attack ads and the first debate.
Who else is in WV2?
