The Boomerang Effect

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A Ukrainian friend reached out to me in October, when it was starting to become clear just how difficult it would be for another aid package to get support from congressional Republicans.

“josh i can’t believe ww3 could happen because the democrats lost the house in 2020,” the friend, still in Kyiv, wrote. From the Ukrainian perspective, those are the stakes: Russia would keep moving west, or into NATO’s Baltic states, once Ukraine is absorbed.

That friend was partly reeling from the whiplash at seeing GOP obstruction turned on Ukraine. It wasn’t long ago that Republicans seemingly advocated for foreign intervention anywhere and everywhere with all the attendant excesses, it wasn’t that long ago that John McCain spoke to pro-EU crowds on Kyiv’s central square.

So, what’s changed? I spoke to a couple of emissaries from the old, interventionist wing of the GOP. Some of their answers, also blurred through the whiplash, weren’t surprising: the personality of Trump and everything that comes with it, polarization which renders every issue a zero sum game.

But there are deeper reasons here as well. Backlash to the Iraq War on the right is one; another is an affinity for authoritarians and the kind of blunt dominance politics that lead to invading and annexing a weaker neighbors territory.

That of course goes for Putin and his portrayal of Russia’s actions as arrayed against western decadence. But it’s also part of what drives the ideological alliance with Viktor Orban. He casts himself as a defender of traditional values, an isle of sanity in a world corrupted by multiculturalism and decadence. His manipulation of his country’s electoral system and courts to stay in power are a feature of that culture war battle. 

Kim Holmes, a former Heritage Foundation executive vice president, told me in blunt terms: it’s not really about Ukraine; it’s about being opposed to liberalism in the “broadest sense.”

More on other news below. Let’s dig in. 

— Josh Kovensky

The Crowd Cheering Trump’s Promised Dictatorship Included A European Leader With Clear Nazi Ties

Over the past few weeks, the world seems to have been waking up to the fact that Donald Trump is quite possibly a presidential frontrunner again and that, if he wins, the results would almost certainly be dramatic and undemocratic. 

We are about a month out from the Iowa caucuses and Trump is way in front of all of his so-called Republican primary rivals. As virtually the nominee in waiting, Trump is also starting to best President Joe Biden in a few polls. And, just as the possibility of a second Trump term in the White House is starting to become real, the former president is openly musing about being a “dictator.”

Trump doubled down on that line at a gala last weekend. As per usual with Trump and his enablers, some have attempted to argue he’s exaggerating or joking. However, as TPM’s report on the event showed, his ideological fellow travelers from around the world were in attendance to cheer Trump on. The crowd included representatives from three of Europe’s more extreme right-wing parties.

This attracted some notice, but TPM’s report went even further and identified an Austrian leader who has worked with a party founded by Nazis posing for a smiling picture with Trump’s pal, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). Our reporting also showed that, even as some suggest we shouldn’t listen to Trump’s authoritarian bluster, his allies are receiving a clear message and are excited by the prospect of four years of iron fisted rule and retribution. As one put it to us, they saw the speech as a sign Trump is “going to hit the ground running.”

— Hunter Walker

Abortion Back At SCOTUS 

The Supreme Court announced Wednesday that it would hear a case related to the accessibility of mifepristone, one of two drugs comprising the “abortion pill.”
 

The Biden administration asked the Court to take up the case, making the announcement predictable if still jarring to a country with Dobbs scar tissue.

The order included one big tea leaf, which makes experts think the justices might focus more on the myriad procedural oddities of the case — dubious plaintiff standing, questions about timeliness and exhaustion — rather than its substance. That signal was the justices’ refusal to take up a related cross-petition, which asked them to reexamine the Food and Drug Administration’s initial approval of mifepristone, more than 20 years ago.
 

There might be political motivations at play that explain the desire not to hand down an enormous abortion mandate months before the 2024 election. Dobbs completely upended our politics, changing the course of elections and reviving a coalition of voters thought to be permanently siloed within the Republican party. With the White House and Congress up for grabs in November, the right-wing justices may not be particularly eager to give the oppositional party another juicy electoral carrot. 

The Court will likely hear the case — FDA v. Alliance Hippocratic Medicine plus Danco Laboratories v. Alliance Hippocratic Medicine — this spring, with a decision expected in early summer.

— Kate Riga

It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year: Golden Dukes 2023

TPM’s public corruption Oscars have returned, the time of year when we recognize 2023’s scummiest trash holes and greatest grifters. The Golden Dukes have been running for 15 years now, offering TPM staff and readers a moment during the holidays to catch our breath and revel in the comedic absurdity of scandal, brazenness and our dark political moment.

Be sure to check out the Golden Dukes 2023 lineup and submit your nominations here.

— Nicole Lafond