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About a month ago, we outlined how Republicans could shut down the government in the next few months, lawmaking that was legislatively distinct from the debt ceiling negotiation but intrinsically connected to it because of some provisions the final debt deal contained to guide the appropriations process.
Now, we’re in the thick of appropriations season. And House Republicans are already following the pathways to shutdown.
As the House appropriations committees have started writing their funding bills, Republicans have attached all manner of poison riders they know Democrats could never vote for: cutting off abortion access, slicing transition-related health care out of coverage plans, attacking programs geared towards the LGBTQ community and obliterating Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs.
They’ve introduced some of these provisions, sources told me, without any warning to their Democratic counterparts, springing them on the ranking members in the middle of markup hearings. That’s eroding what little bipartisan cooperation still exists on the Hill, particularly within the less scrutinized subcommittees.
It also creates a legislative dead end. While Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) caters to his right flank — in a defensive crouch after they punished him for days for cooperating with the White House on the debt limit bill — its members are crafting bills that have no hope of passage in the Democratic-majority Senate. That effectively boxes them out of the process, while Republicans and Democrats collaborate in the upper chamber to write realistic legislation.
“With a four-vote majority, it would not surprise me if they continue to use the strategy they used with the debt limit ceiling,” a senior Democratic aide told me. In other words: a bill that passes on the backs of a bipartisan coalition in the Senate, plus House Democrats and whatever House Republicans are left that are interested in governing. The far-right House flank, again, would have obstruction-ed and culture war-ed itself into irrelevance.
But if enough House Republicans take their partisan obstinance to the extreme, they could withhold their votes — and force a government shutdown as soon as October.
More on other news below. Let’s dig in.