What End Goal Are We Comfortable With?

Hello! It’s the weekend, this is The Weekender. ☕

Josh Kovensky here with a check-in on the situation in Ukraine.

Nearly all the fighting in Ukraine now is contained to two broad areas: the country’s east – the region known as the Donbas, for the mineral basin that comprises it – and the south, which Russian forces appear to be planning to annex.

It’s set to be a long and grueling fight. But we’re already at a point that would have seemed fantastic on Feb. 24, with Ukrainian troops reportedly reaching the Russian border in Kharkiv, and with Russia faltering in its effort to seize the Donbas.

That’s partly thanks to the massive support that the U.S. and NATO have given Ukraine – weapons to fill the country’s depleted arsenals, and more and more heavy equipment. Our intelligence helps the Ukrainians spot advancing Russians, as more and more Russian observers of the war bemoan Ukraine’s effectiveness – and accuracy – at artillery strikes.

It’s part of what some see as an escalatory spiral, with American support explicitly or implicitly standing behind all of this. There’s a momentum that’s very palpable and, as some commentators note, the more help the U.S. provides, the greater we risk direct involvement. One seasoned defense analyst points out, for example, that supplying Ukraine with American contractors to maintain equipment that we’re supplying may be inevitable.

There’s a bigger question here that remains unanswered: what end goal are we comfortable with? The Ukrainians say that, if capable, they would restore their country to its February 2014 borders: Crimea and the Donbas. Is that the aim of U.S. policy?

More on other news below. Let’s dig in. 

— Josh Kovensky

The Republican Abortion Tightrope Walk

This week, Republicans continued to flail as they prepare to be handed an anti-abortion victory decades in the making.

“Overturning Roe v. Wade would not ban abortion. It would send the decision back to your state,” Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) tweeted.

“It might be a little messy for some people, but abortion is not going away,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) told the Wall Street Journal.

The political calculus is obvious: the biggest risk for Republicans from what would be a landmark Supreme Court win is the backlash. The joy of ending access to abortion in great swaths of the country would be somewhat dampened by an uprising so potent it endangers or undermines the GOP’s clear advantage going into the midterms.

At the same time, Republicans need to keep the anti-abortion contingent of their base engaged and energized. That’s why so many of them took to the Senate floor Wednesday to condemn the abortion rights bill as “radical” and extreme, custom-built for the apparently many women desiring to carry pregnancies to their latest months before cavalierly deciding to get an abortion after all.  

They’re proving it a tricky tightrope to walk.

— Kate Riga

How The GOP Could Rig The House

A few months ago, some observers expressed cautious optimism that the House of Representatives would at least roughly represent the overall balance of Americans’ politics. But right-wing gamesmanship in a few key states appears likely to tilt the House toward GOP hands: In Ohio, the GOP-dominated Redistricting Commission delayed for long enough that challenged, gerrymandered maps are nonetheless in use for congressional races this year. 

In Alabama, the Supreme Court reversed a lower court’s ruling (made up of two Trump appointees and a Clinton appointee) that a congressional map discriminated against Black voters. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration is appealing a judge’s ruling that eliminating a plurality Black congressional district violated the state’s constitution – and they may well win. Democrats haven’t been so lucky: In New York, where the left gerrymandered for its own benefit, state courts have tasked an independent expert with drawing a fair map.

— Matt Shuham

• Jan. 6 drip-drip: The House Jan. 6 Committee issued subpoenas on Thursday to five Republican members of Congress, including Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). These subpoenas are the first issued by the committee to fellow members of Congress. Issuing a congressional subpoena to a member of the body is a rare move that highlights the existential peril in which the Capitol insurrection placed the country.
• A must-read from TPM Cafe: Tucker Carlson Pulls From An Old Playbook As He Stokes Anxiety About A Masculinity Crisis
• Donald Trump’s 2020 coup-plotting crew wasn’t exactly an A-Team: You had Rudy Giuliani reaching peak incoherence, Sidney Powell seemingly taking strategic advice from online message boards, the ex-Overstock.com CEO shuttling operatives around the country in a private jet … it was a mess. And yet: They got pretty close. The latest from Matt Shuham, in TPM Prime: Trump’s 2020 Coup Failures Could Be 2024 Successes.
• Josh Kovensky with an update on the Durham probe: Judgment Day: Durham Finally Gets 2016 Conspiracy Theories Before Jury.
• Mike Pence hasn’t always been outspoken about the danger of Trump’s Big Lie, which has riven Georgia’s politics. But he does pick his moments: Pence Joins Parade Of GOPers Bucking Trump To Support Kemp.

According to a draft Supreme Court opinion leaked to the press, Roe v. Wade is slated to be overturned in the summer. In its first event of 2022, TPM is gathering our community to discuss what to make of the stark, new, post-Roe world the decision portends. We’ll bring together journalists, experts and practitioners for a robust discussion of possible outcomes. Our panel of guests is below. 

The event will be held virtually via Zoom on May 26, 2022, at 1 p.m. ET.

The suggested contribution for this event is $5. All contributions will go to the TPM journalism fund. Contributions are not tax-deductible.