‌‌‌‌‌Some Hope In Stalled Congressional Voting Rights Talks?

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Hello readers!

We’re back. After a couple weeks off for the holidays, The Franchise is jam-packed with news this week. I’m sure we’ve cut or missed some important stuff, which brings me to my next point…

Got a voting rights story you think our readers should hear? Chime in on The Hive. You can also respond to this email and tell me about it.
 

Alright, let’s dig in.

Georgia Voting Rights Groups Want To Hear A Plan From Biden Before His Big Speech

I listened in for several hours on Thursday as Democratic senator after Democratic senator cited the Jan. 6 Capitol attack in arguments for passing Democratic voting rights bills. Only a handful addressed the elephant in the room: Republicans are basically universally against the bills, and Democrats need to change the filibuster for anything to pass. Two Democrats — Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) — refuse to vote to do so.

In lieu of any progress on that front, several Republican senators including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have expressed some openness to reforming the Electoral Count Act alone. That law, governing the counting of Electoral College votes, defines the rules that Trump tried to abuse to steal a second term. 
 

But reforming the ECA on its own, without a more comprehensive bill like the Freedom to Vote Act, is simply not enough, many Democrats including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer argue. There are points to be made on both sides — maybe Dems should pursue a win where they can get one? Are these just empty words from Republicans? Why not pursue both tracks independently, the ECA reform and the voting rights bills?

I’ll leave Democrats’ best course of action for readers to decide. For now, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are scheduled to make voting rights speeches in Atlanta. But several voting rights and racial justice groups in an area have issued a warning: Don’t come empty-handed, looking for an easy photo-op. Bring a plan.

“[W]e reject any visit by President Biden that does not include an announcement of a finalized voting rights plan that will pass both chambers, not be stopped by the filibuster, and be signed into law; anything less is insufficient and unwelcome,” wrote the signatories, which include the New Georgia Project Action Fund, Black Voters Matter Fund and the Asian American Advocacy Fund. “Georgia will not be used as a two-dimensional backdrop, a chess piece in someone else’s ineffectual political dealings.” 

How Bad Is Gerrymandering This Year, Really? 

Over the holiday break, we published three analyses of the status of gerrymandering around the country, one each on the state-level and congressional-level gerrymanders, and another collecting the absurdities we dug up along the way. 
 

In the days since, an interesting debate has emerged, captured in a subsequent analysis here by Kate Riga: Are things really going that badly for Democrats? 
 

Some maps seem pretty fair — like in Michigan, where an independent panel “produced a very fair map with a lot of competition both on the congressional level and legislative level,” Michael Li, senior counsel at NYU’s Brennan Center for Justice, told Kate. (On the other hand, several Black lawmakers have sued over the maps, saying they minimize minority representation.) 
 

An analysis from the Cook Political report found, in essence, that things aren’t as bad as they could have been: While Republicans are still gerrymandering, demographic shifts have put them on the defensive, forcing them to shore up existing GOP districts from 2011’s aggressive gerrymanders, rather than creating new ones. 
 

The discussion reminds me of the Electoral College: It’s never great for Democrats. But some years are better than others. The congressional map still hugely favors Republicans: On top of the wild 2011 gerrymanders, the 2022 map created lots of new deep red districts, which free the GOP up to focus on competitive races, where Democrats remain vulnerable. 

Around The States

Correction: This post initially incorrectly referred to the state of which Jay Inslee is governor. He is the governor of Washington.

ARIZONA’s elections will be governed by a three-year-old handbook after the state’s attorney general and secretary of state couldn’t agree on a new version. 
 

The NORTH CAROLINA Republican state representative leading the GOP’s redistricting efforts admitted at a hearing over those efforts that he sometimes secretly consulted reference maps brought in by an aide — even though he’d previously denied just that. The maps have since been destroyed. 
 

Speaking of North Carolina, a fascinating tidbit from Rick Hasen: In that state and OHIO, the state Supreme Courts include justices who are the children of Republican elected officials who will be affected by redistricting lawsuits before the courts. No recusals in sight. 
 

WASHINGTON Gov. Jay Inslee (D) said he would support legislation to make election officials’ and candidates’ lying about election results a gross misdemeanor.
 

Legal residents who are not citizens can now vote in NEW YORK CITY elections.
 

A NEBRASKA state senator is using the Jan. 6 Capitol attacks to justify elevating voter fraud to a felony offense. “The anniversary of January 6 reminds us of the importance of integrity in the voting process and the public's confidence in the process,” State Senator Tom Briese (R) said.
 

The Bipartisan Policy Center is out with a helpful “best practices” guide to election observation — the source of plenty of lawsuits in 2020, and likely a hot potato for election officials as 2022 approaches. This seems important: “There should be a clear process and chain of authority in place for removing a disruptive observer from the voting or counting site.”

The Latest In Election Sabotage

I wrote recently, again, about the situation in WISCONSIN, where an openly partisan investigator and his Big Lie-endorsing team are going on a wild goose chase for any sort of grist to support new voting restrictions. The investigation was supposed to end with 2021. Now, Robin Vos, the assembly speaker who authorized the probe, wants results by the end of January — so the legislature can write legislation before its term is up. 
 

Maricopa County ARIZONA’s board released a lengthy rebuttal to the seriously flawed findings of the partisan audit there performed by Cyber Ninjas. Also, Cyber Ninjas is apparently self-destructing after a state judge imposed a $50,000 daily fine over public records vilations. More on both points here. 
 

The initial results of TEXAS election audit found no significant vote-counting issues. 

Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Inside the campaign to undermine Georgia’s election
 

AP: Slow-motion insurrection’: How GOP seizes election power
 

NPR: Here's where election-denying candidates are running to control voting

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