As folks struggle to get their heads around how long the fight to “flatten the curve” might have to last to be truly effective, Josh Kovensky has a new story out framing up how to think about an essential paradox of the fight against COVID-19.
All else being equal, a successful mitigation strategy will tend to require sustaining extreme measures for longer than if we simply endure a short, fast, and brutal blitz of cases that overwhelm the health care system. As Josh puts it, it’s the difference between a tsunami and an extended high tide. Understanding that dynamic helps to begin to come to grips with how long the current disruptions may have to last.
That said, some expert readers responded to the story noting some other advantages to slowing COVID-19 down. They make some good points.
Important new developments in a story we’ve been working since Friday: two emergency room doctors on opposite coasts are in critical condition in what could be the first U.S. cases of occupational transmission of COVID-19. Josh Kovensky has been on the story day and night. Here’s his report.
I’ve been grappling all week with how to cover the COVID-19 testing debacle in a smart way. It has become the focal point of much of the public concern, and I suspect it’s what elected officials are hearing the most about because everyone wants to be tested. But people clamoring for tests and politicians responding to the clamor doesn’t necessarily align with what makes the most sense from a public health standpoint.
You saw Trump’s remarks yesterday where he falsely claimed that the United States has a “tremendous testing set up” for those entering the country. In contrast, we have had a number of accounts from readers arriving back in the United States in recent days who have been concerned that not only are they not being tested, but they’re not even being screened for symptoms or possible exposure on their trips.
Here’s an example from TPM Reader AG who emailed overnight with about her arrival in the United States from Italy earlier this week.
We’re starting to see herd behavior around social distancing measures, and it’s pretty powerful. The more people do it, the easier it for everyone to do it. But TPM Reader JA has a good point that it starts at the top*:
Kudos to TPM for keeping folks out of the office. I am thinking this morning about why leadership from on high is so important relative to COVID-19 and social distancing, and that’s because half measures aren’t good enough in themselves, and because for me half measures lead to quarter measures.
Exclusive new reporting from TPM on how the Trump administration’s slow-footed response to COVID-19 is hampering the public health efforts in Washington state (and presumably other states, too). Instead of clearing the way for a more robust state-level response, President Trump is calling Washington’s governor a “snake.”
A longtime reader who is a CEO in tech manufacturing describes the knock-on effects of COVID-19:
The disruption to our supply chain is … just bewildering. It may be that it is massive. It may be that it is just bizarre? But at the moment, there is just confusion.