Trump-Cruz Effect: Cook Political Report Moves 10 House Races To Dem Favor

March 18, 2016 10:52 a.m.

The Republican Party’s stranglehold on the House of Representatives may be crumbling, according to a new analysis by the Cook Political Report.

While the GOP has its largest House majority in more than eight decades, Donald Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at the top of the ticket could seriously jeopardize the majority that has been built.

In its analysis of congressional races, the Cook Political Report moved 10 races Friday closer to Dem favor with the assumption that Cruz or Trump could have a major affect on down-ballot races from Virginia to California.

In a blog post Friday, analyst David Wasserman wrote “Democrats would need to pick up 30 seats, a daunting challenge given the GOP’s immense redistricting advantage and the vaporization of swing districts. But all cycle, Democrats have daydreamed about Republicans nominating an extremely polarizing presidential candidate, and suddenly it’s almost certain they will get their wish.”

Get TPM in your inbox, twice weekly.
Your subscription could not be saved. Please try again.
Your subscription has been successful.

According to Wasserman, Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket could put a few kinds of districts into play for Democrats. For one, any district with a large Hispanic population could be a liability for Republicans. And, Wasserman says that “high-education” and “high-income” districts may also be more averse to Trump or Cruz.

That puts several tight races in California and Florida up for grabs.

“So many assumptions have been wrong this cycle that it’s difficult to be definitive about another: that the House majority won’t be in play in 2016,” Wasserman wrote.

Latest Livewire
Comments are now Members-Only

Non-members are still able to read comments, but will no longer be able to participate. To join the conversation, sign up now and get:

30% Off Annual Prime Membership

TPM strives to build as inclusive a community as financially possible. We offer FREE memberships to those experiencing financial hardship and FREE memberships for students.

View all options
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Investigations Desk:
Audience Development Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: