Just A Hunch

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November 8, 2011 7:54 a.m.

With today’s ruling by the DC Circuit Court of Appeals upholding the individual insurance mandate in the health care reform law, we may have reached the point where the weight of jurisprudence now favors the Supreme Court upholding the law.

Of course, the Supreme Court doesn’t weigh the number of rulings in favor against those opposed to reach its own decision — and this court in particular has not been shy about putting bold new imprimaturs on the law. So take my hunch for what it’s worth, but my sense is there is enough disagreement among conservatives legal minds on this Commerce Clause issue (see Brett Kavanaugh’s dissent today, for example) that the Supreme Court will stop short of a wholesale reworking of the modern constitutional underpinning in this area.

Happy to have our con law readers weigh in here.

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