Theres some interesting insidery

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There’s some interesting insidery stuff going on with an inter-agency tussle pitting — contrary to form — State and DOD <$NoAd$>against the NSC on Taiwan policy.

Bill Kristol and Gary Schmitt touched on it in a piece in the Standard on Tuesday. And in the Nelson Report this afternoon, Chris Nelson — with his inimitable style and dazzling sources — says the following …

9. Finally for today, from last night’s Report, we incorrectly stated that NSC Asia director Jim Moriarity spent all his time in Taipei before returning to Washington…sources say he also was sent to Beijing to personally explain the President’s intentions in writing, privately, to Taiwan President Chen Shuibian.

— we don’t know if Moriarity carried a “second letter” from Bush to President Hu…Loyal Readers who may have such knowledge are reminded that e-mail works both ways.

10. But feedback today confirms that while the State Department certainly supports the intention of the NSC in trying to reign-in Chen’s efforts to push the envelope in redefining Taiwan’s position vis a vis China…that State, including Secretary Powell, is very, very unhappy with how the NSC handled the Moriarity visit.

— no one wants to admit this…but it turns out that Powell felt constrained to send Bush a letter reminding him of the acceptable ways to discuss what the U.S. “opposes”, and why any changes in the mantra can themselves be de-stabilizing.

11. Sources familiar with the Bush/Hu letter confirm our Report last night, that it did use the “approved” or “time tested” language that the U.S. “opposes” unilateral moves by either China or Taiwan which might upset the peaceful status quo.

— but evidence of the tactical blood bath over Moriarity’s visit comes with word that National Security Advisor Condi Rice had to personally order Moriarity to read the draft Bush/Hu letter to Deputy Secretary of State Randy Schriver.

12. And even at this late date, the Bush/Hu letter having been delivered in Taipei, and, apparently, discussed in Beijing, State has not been given an actual text of what Moriarity put together for the President’s signature.

— does any of this really matter? After all, the bottom line is that both State and the NSC are on the same page when it comes to concern over the risks posed now, and in the future, by Chen Shuibian.

13. Our guess is that it does matter, in that the fight isn’t merely tactical, but is fundamentally conceptual. Our guess is that Moriarity’s effort reflects a Bush White House which continues to view all foreign policy through the prism of counter-terrorism (and, in Asia, this includes dealing with N. Korea).

— recall that Bush’s personal anger with Chen goes back to at least August, 2002, as we reported at the time, when even pro-Taiwan officials were furious with Chen for “upsetting larger U.S. interests” vis a vis China.

14. Despite Bush’s letter, this issue is not going away, and is likely to get a good deal more “difficult”, not the least because the growing support for Taiwan on Capitol Hill is fundamentally based on support for democracy writ large…and a basic innocence of historical appreciation of the reasons for the Cross-Straits dialogue.

— as one DOD wag put it today, “What happens when Wolfowitz decides that if we support democracy for Iraq, we can hardly turn our back on Taiwan?” How Capitol Hill might play with that is anyone’s guess.

We can discuss later the fact that the president’s brother, Neil Bush, is now in business with the son of the former President of the PRC, Jiang Zemin, and Neil’s recent ‘summit’ meeting with Taiwanese President Chen in New York.

Not that any of these things have anything to do with each other of course …

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