I think David Ignatius strikes the right balance, understands the interplay of factors in what’s now playing out in Lebanon. We don’t know whether Iran ‘green-lighted’ the Hezbollah incursion into northern Israel a few days ago, as some are suggesting, with little or no direct evidence. But it is quite foolish to see what happened as an isolated incident, or merely a tit for tat with over what’s happening in Gaza. There is an Iran-Syria axis. They are patrons of Hamas and Hizbollah. And everything here is connected. Our muscling with the Iranians over their nuclear program and the bedeviled situation in Iraq. These are all pieces on the same chessboard. Events transpire on many levels. And have many causes. But I think it is correct to see a good part of this as the soundings of groups allied with Syrian and Iran, and to a degree acting in concert with him, to strike a new balance of power in the region (in the context of Israeli withdrawals from occupied territory, growing Iranian power and American distraction and enervation in Iraq.)
With that said, I think Israel is entirely within her right to react strongly to these provocations.
But what you have every right to do isn’t always wise to do, as Ignatius explains. A strong response is probably a prerequisite from the Israelis. But it’s not sufficient and it can easily backfire. For the Israelis and for the US. They risk slipping into the same quicksand they did almost twenty-five years ago. Outside powers — and that means the US and Europe — have to be involved here.
(ed.note: Nothing like a post on the Middle East to raise the temperature of the email in box. If you disagree, I’d love to hear from you. I’ve been set straight by dissenting emails many times before. But attacking emails will just be ignored.)
