Poll: Dem Leads In NY-23, Conservative Party’s Hoffman Still In Third

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the NY-23 special election finds Democratic candidate Bill Owens narrowly leading Republican Dede Scozzafava — and Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate who has excited a revolt against the GOP establishment from the whole national right wing, in third.

The numbers: Owens 35%, Scozzafava 30%, and Hoffman 23%, with a ±4% margin of error. This is consistent with last week’s Siena poll, which had Owens ahead by 33%-29%-23%.

Hoffman supporters were asked for their second choices, with only 9% saying they would back Scozzafava, 3% for Owens, 26% who wouldn’t vote, and 62% who are undecided. Even with the higher margins of error that afflict these sorts of sub-samples, that’s pretty telling.

Interestingly, a key poll question finds that Scozzafava doesn’t even qualify for the argument that the GOP should nominate moderate candidates to match moderate districts. Scozzafava is in favor of gay marriage — making her even more progressive than the Democrat on this issue — but the district’s likely voters oppose gay marriage by 53%-39%.