The two men vying for the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination enter the last weekend of the race locked in a dead heat according to the latest tracking poll released by Muhlenberg College. The latest results of the poll, taken between May 11-14: Sen. Arlen Specter 44, Rep. Joe Sestak 43.
The poll, which has tracked 400 likely voters since Apr. 28 and has a margin of error of 5%, has fluctuated in the homestretch of the primary, alternately showing Sestak or Specter ahead by as much as 5 points. Overall, however, the poll has shown the race to be too close to call. Though Sestak has had all the momentum in the closing weeks, the Muhlenberg poll suggests he has not achieved a big enough lead to write off a Specter win by any means.
The TPM Poll Average for the primary, which includes the new Muhlenberg poll, shows Sestak ahead by a margin of 44.5-43.1.Here’s what the final two weeks of the primary have looked like in the Muhlenberg tracking poll, which is conducted in conjunction with the Allentown, PA Morning Call:
Late Update: The final numbers from the Muhlenberg tracking poll, taken May 12-15, were released this morning. They show Specter and Sestak tied, 44-44. (They also appear in the above chart.)