Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor narrowly leads Republican Tom Cotton in an internal poll of the Arkansas Senate race, a sign that the vulnerable incumbent has a fighting chance in the tough contest.
The survey by Opinion Research Associates, given to TPM first by an Arkansas Democratic official on Monday, shows the Democrat leading by 1 point, well within the margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.
“[I]n the race for the U.S. Senate, Democratic Senator Mark Pryor edges Republican Congressman Tom Cotton 45% to 44%, with Nathan LaFrance, the Libertarian, and Mark Swaney of the Green Party each getting 1%, while 10% of voters were undecided,” pollsters Ernest J. Oakleaf and Zoe D. Oakleaf wrote in the memo.
The Opinion Research Associates poll reached 401 likely Arkansas voters from October 25-26, just over one week before Election Day.
Most recent polls have found Pryor trailing Cotton, including two polls released Sunday. One NBC/Marist poll had him down 2 points, and a CBS/New York Times/YouGov poll found him behind by 5 points. Forecasters including the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight give Cotton a strong chance of victory.
Cotton leads Pryor by 4.9 percentage points in the TPM PollTracker Average.
The poll also found Democrat Mike Ross leading Republican Asa Hutchinson 44 to 42 percent in the race for governor — also inside the margin of error. Eleven percent were undecided in that race.
